08292026-238-212-94
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
VERIFIABLE MODEL EVIDENCE
Ressq prediction performance
This database evaluates the immutable final Ressq probability snapshot created before kickoff. It publishes sample size alongside outcome accuracy and Brier score so a small or poorly calibrated sample cannot masquerade as a strong claim.
SAMPLE SIZE39
HIGHEST-PROBABILITY OUTCOME ACCURACY41.0%
BRIER SCORE · LOWER IS BETTER0.2550
Calibration by confidence band
Calibration compares the average highest probability with how often that highest-probability outcome actually occurred. Small samples remain visible.
| Band | Sample | Mean probability | Observed accuracy | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under-50 | 8 | 43.4% | 37.5% | -5.9% | 0.2169 |
| 50-59 | 24 | 54.3% | 41.7% | -12.7% | 0.2637 |
| 60-69 | 7 | 62.5% | 42.9% | -19.6% | 0.2689 |
| 70-79 | 0 | Not enough data | Not enough data | Not enough data | — |
| 80-plus | 0 | Not enough data | Not enough data | Not enough data | — |
Market breakdown
| Market | Sample | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 13 | 46.2% | 0.1990 |
| BTTS | 13 | 23.1% | 0.3096 |
| OU25 | 13 | 53.8% | 0.2564 |
Prediction records
08292026-238-212-94
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-238-212-94
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-548-540-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-548-540-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-548-540-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-537-9692-141
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-537-9692-141
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-537-9692-141
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-722-718-141
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-722-718-141
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-722-718-141
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-9723-17538-667
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-9723-17538-667
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-9723-17538-667
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-47-34-39
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-488-503-135
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-488-503-135
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-502-512-135
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-502-512-135
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-502-512-135
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-1579-494-135
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-1579-494-135
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-1579-494-135
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-165-175-78
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-165-175-78
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-165-175-78
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-47-34-39
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-47-34-39
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-488-503-135
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-734-736-144
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-734-736-144
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-734-736-144
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-10509-2929-307
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-10509-2929-307
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-10509-2929-307
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-9628-9577-667
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-9347-13947-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-9347-13947-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-9628-9577-667
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-9628-9577-667
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-9347-13947-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-607-7411-203
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-607-7411-203
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-607-7411-203
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-12804-9341-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-12804-9341-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-12804-9341-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-338-17115-106
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-338-17115-106
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-338-17115-106
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-95-116-61
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-95-116-61
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-95-116-61
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-5050-575-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-2110-17991-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-2110-17991-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-949-5046-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-949-5046-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-949-5046-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-957-617-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-957-617-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-957-617-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-5050-575-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-2110-17991-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-5050-575-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-12260-619-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-12260-619-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-12260-619-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-955-553-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-955-553-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-955-553-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-1123-1124-197
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
08292026-1123-1124-197
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-1123-1124-197
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-3733-603-345
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-3733-603-345
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-3733-603-345
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-3714-640-345
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-3714-640-345
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-3714-640-345
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-539-543-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-539-543-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-539-543-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-9593-723-141
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-9593-723-141
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-9593-723-141
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-3724-4257-345
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-3724-4257-345
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-3724-4257-345
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-240-214-94
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
08292026-240-214-94
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-240-214-94
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-4724-227-94
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-4724-227-94
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-4724-227-94
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
08292026-1335-59-40
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-247-1389-179
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
08292026-247-1389-179
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
08292026-247-1389-179
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios
Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
Inclusion and exclusion rules
Only the final snapshot created before kickoff is evaluated. Completed FT/AET/PEN fixtures are scored. Postponed, cancelled, abandoned, awarded and walkover fixtures are excluded and counted separately (0 in this view). Missing results remain pending. Older model versions remain attached to their original records.
Read the full methodology →