OU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:29:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
VERIFIABLE MODEL EVIDENCE
This database evaluates the immutable final Ressq probability snapshot created before kickoff. It publishes sample size alongside outcome accuracy and Brier score so a small or poorly calibrated sample cannot masquerade as a strong claim.
Calibration compares the average highest probability with how often that highest-probability outcome actually occurred. Small samples remain visible.
| Band | Sample | Mean probability | Observed accuracy | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under-50 | 514 | 42.8% | 46.5% | 3.7% | 0.2118 |
| 50-59 | 1462 | 54.3% | 54.0% | -0.3% | 0.2416 |
| 60-69 | 395 | 64.0% | 62.0% | -2.0% | 0.2297 |
| 70-79 | 88 | 72.4% | 75.0% | 2.6% | 0.1693 |
| 80-plus | 54 | 85.7% | 74.1% | -11.7% | 0.1802 |
| Market | Sample | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 838 | 51.3% | 0.2007 |
| BTTS | 837 | 55.4% | 0.2501 |
| OU25 | 838 | 57.9% | 0.2386 |
OU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:29:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:29:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:29:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:01 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:01 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 15:26:01 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 666 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:43:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 666 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:43:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 666 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:43:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:40:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:40:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:40:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:11 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:11 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:39:11 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:38:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:37:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:29:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:29:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:29:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:28:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:27:22 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:27:22 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:27:22 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:26:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:40 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:40 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:40 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:15 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:15 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:25:15 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:24:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:23:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:52 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:52 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:52 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:22:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:23 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:23 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:23 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:10:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:14 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:14 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:14 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:41 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:41 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:11:41 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:50 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
BTTS · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:50 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
OU25 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v8-contextual-player-markets
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:12:50 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 07/10/2026, 14:13:16 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
Only the final snapshot created before kickoff is evaluated. Completed FT/AET/PEN fixtures are scored. Postponed, cancelled, abandoned, awarded and walkover fixtures are excluded and counted separately (0 in this view). Missing results remain pending. Older model versions remain attached to their original records.
Read the full methodology →