VERIFIABLE MODEL EVIDENCE

Ressq prediction performance

This database evaluates the immutable final Ressq probability snapshot created before kickoff. It publishes sample size alongside outcome accuracy and Brier score so a small or poorly calibrated sample cannot masquerade as a strong claim.

SAMPLE SIZE798

HIGHEST-PROBABILITY OUTCOME ACCURACY52.1%

BRIER SCORE · LOWER IS BETTER0.2382

Calibration by confidence band

Calibration compares the average highest probability with how often that highest-probability outcome actually occurred. Small samples remain visible.

Band	Sample	Mean probability	Observed accuracy	Gap	Brier
under-50	157	41.7%	46.5%	4.8%	0.2164
50-59	373	54.1%	50.4%	-3.7%	0.2458
60-69	218	62.8%	59.2%	-3.6%	0.2341
70-79	41	72.5%	46.3%	-26.2%	0.2911
80-plus	9	81.8%	77.8%	-4.0%	0.1627

Market breakdown

Market	Sample	Accuracy	Brier
1X2	266	50.4%	0.2063
BTTS	266	53.0%	0.2541
OU25	266	53.0%	0.2542

Prediction records

08292026-9723-17538-667

OU25 · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-537-9692-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-238-212-94

OU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-722-718-141

BTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-238-212-94

BTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-722-718-141

OU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-722-718-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-548-540-140

OU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-548-540-140

BTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-9723-17538-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-9723-17538-667

BTTS · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-238-212-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-548-540-140

1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-537-9692-141

OU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-537-9692-141

BTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-488-503-135

OU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-502-512-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-502-512-135

BTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-502-512-135

OU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:31 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-1579-494-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-1579-494-135

BTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-1579-494-135

OU25 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-488-503-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-488-503-135

BTTS · season 2026 · league 135 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-165-175-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-47-34-39

1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-47-34-39

BTTS · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-47-34-39

OU25 · season 2026 · league 39 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-165-175-78

BTTS · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-165-175-78

OU25 · season 2026 · league 78 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:04:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-734-736-144

1X2 · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-734-736-144

BTTS · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-734-736-144

OU25 · season 2026 · league 144 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-10509-2929-307

OU25 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-10509-2929-307

BTTS · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-10509-2929-307

1X2 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-9628-9577-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-9347-13947-84

OU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-9347-13947-84

BTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-12804-9341-84

OU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-607-7411-203

1X2 · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-607-7411-203

BTTS · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-607-7411-203

OU25 · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-12804-9341-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-9628-9577-667

BTTS · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-12804-9341-84

BTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-9347-13947-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-9628-9577-667

OU25 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-338-17115-106

OU25 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-338-17115-106

BTTS · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-338-17115-106

1X2 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-95-116-61

BTTS · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-95-116-61

OU25 · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-95-116-61

1X2 · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-949-5046-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-949-5046-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-949-5046-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-2110-17991-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-2110-17991-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-2110-17991-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3714-640-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3714-640-345

BTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3714-640-345

OU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3733-603-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-3733-603-345

BTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3733-603-345

OU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3724-4257-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-3724-4257-345

BTTS · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-3724-4257-345

OU25 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-9593-723-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-9593-723-141

BTTS · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-9593-723-141

OU25 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-539-543-140

1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-539-543-140

BTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-539-543-140

OU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-1123-1124-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-1123-1124-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-1123-1124-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —

08292026-955-553-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-955-553-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-955-553-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-12260-619-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-12260-619-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-12260-619-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-5050-575-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-5050-575-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-5050-575-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-957-617-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-957-617-197

BTTS · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-957-617-197

OU25 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-240-214-94

BTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-240-214-94

OU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —

08292026-4724-227-94

BTTS · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-240-214-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-4724-227-94

OU25 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

08292026-4724-227-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —

08292026-1376-748-41

BTTS · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-1376-748-41

OU25 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-247-1389-179

1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —

08292026-247-1389-179

BTTS · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —

Inclusion and exclusion rules

Only the final snapshot created before kickoff is evaluated. Completed FT/AET/PEN fixtures are scored. Postponed, cancelled, abandoned, awarded and walkover fixtures are excluded and counted separately (0 in this view). Missing results remain pending. Older model versions remain attached to their original records.

Read the full methodology →