09162026-120-130-71
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 71 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:33:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
VERIFIABLE MODEL EVIDENCE
Ressq prediction performance
This database evaluates the immutable final Ressq probability snapshot created before kickoff. It publishes sample size alongside outcome accuracy and Brier score so a small or poorly calibrated sample cannot masquerade as a strong claim.
SAMPLE SIZE1,887
HIGHEST-PROBABILITY OUTCOME ACCURACY55.1%
BRIER SCORE · LOWER IS BETTER0.2286
Calibration by confidence band
Calibration compares the average highest probability with how often that highest-probability outcome actually occurred. Small samples remain visible.
| Band | Sample | Mean probability | Observed accuracy | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under-50 | 375 | 42.9% | 45.9% | 3.0% | 0.2144 |
| 50-59 | 994 | 54.4% | 52.7% | -1.7% | 0.2425 |
| 60-69 | 343 | 64.3% | 64.4% | 0.1% | 0.2174 |
| 70-79 | 110 | 73.5% | 68.2% | -5.3% | 0.2082 |
| 80-plus | 65 | 86.3% | 73.9% | -12.5% | 0.1921 |
Market breakdown
| Market | Sample | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 629 | 53.3% | 0.1962 |
| BTTS | 629 | 54.7% | 0.2470 |
| OU25 | 629 | 57.4% | 0.2426 |
Prediction records
09162026-120-130-71
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 71 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:33:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-120-130-71
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 71 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:33:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-473-455-130
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 130 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-473-455-130
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 130 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-473-455-130
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 130 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 22:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-539-531-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-539-531-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-539-531-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-529-4665-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-529-4665-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-529-4665-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-168-4360-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:04:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-168-4360-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:04:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-168-4360-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:04:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-746-201-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-746-201-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-746-201-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-637-94-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-637-94-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-637-94-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:07:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-553-336-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-553-336-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-553-336-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-563-620-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-563-620-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-563-620-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:06:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-554-80-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:05:08 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-554-80-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:05:08 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-554-80-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:05:08 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-33-51-48
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-33-51-48
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-33-51-48
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-1346-66-48
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1346-66-48
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-1346-66-48
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-489-211-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-489-211-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-489-211-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-45-39-48
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 48 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-45-39-48
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 48 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-45-39-48
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 48 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1340-1830-43
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-1340-1830-43
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-1340-1830-43
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-4695-1823-43
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-4695-1823-43
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-4695-1823-43
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:02:25 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-4700-1366-43
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:01:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-4700-1366-43
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:01:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-4700-1366-43
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 43 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 19:01:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-1336-62-48
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:59:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1336-62-48
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:59:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1336-62-48
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 48 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:59:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-2700-24757-288
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 288 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:02:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-2700-24757-288
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 288 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:02:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-2700-24757-288
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 288 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 18:02:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-530-727-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-530-727-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-530-727-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 20:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-544-536-140
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:02 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-544-536-140
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:02 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-544-536-140
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:02 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-3402-538-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-3402-538-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-3402-538-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-3683-628-3
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-3683-628-3
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-3683-628-3
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 3 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:02:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-12831-12880-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-12831-12880-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-12831-12880-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 80-plus · Brier —
09162026-1631-9339-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1631-9339-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-1631-9339-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 17:01:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-13947-1330-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:52:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-13947-1330-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:52:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-13947-1330-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:52:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-1655-4260-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1655-4260-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-1655-4260-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-19475-1649-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-19475-1649-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-19475-1649-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:51:48 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-9341-1625-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-9341-1625-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-9341-1625-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 16:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-1630-9347-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 15:01:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier —
09162026-1630-9347-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 15:01:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-1630-9347-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 15:01:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-9340-9346-84
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 12:04:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-9340-9346-84
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 12:04:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09162026-9340-9346-84
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · fixture-form-poisson-v1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 12:04:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-146-123-72
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 12:02:21 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09162026-146-123-72
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 1:01:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09162026-146-123-72
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 13/09/2026, 1:01:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
09152026-755-1223-72
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 12/09/2026, 23:01:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09152026-755-1223-72
pendingBTTS · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 12/09/2026, 23:01:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier —
09152026-755-1223-72
pending1X2 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-davidson-elo-v2-k24-h45-joint-c1
Snapshot 12/09/2026, 23:01:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier —
09152026-148-139-72
pendingOU25 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v7-dynamic-score-grid
Snapshot 12/09/2026, 23:01:53 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier —
Inclusion and exclusion rules
Only the final snapshot created before kickoff is evaluated. Completed FT/AET/PEN fixtures are scored. Postponed, cancelled, abandoned, awarded and walkover fixtures are excluded and counted separately (0 in this view). Missing results remain pending. Older model versions remain attached to their original records.
Read the full methodology →