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VERIFIABLE MODEL EVIDENCE

Ressq prediction performance

This database evaluates the immutable final Ressq probability snapshot created before kickoff. It publishes sample size alongside outcome accuracy and Brier score so a small or poorly calibrated sample cannot masquerade as a strong claim.

SAMPLE SIZE15
HIGHEST-PROBABILITY OUTCOME ACCURACY46.7%
BRIER SCORE · LOWER IS BETTER0.1975

Calibration by confidence band

Calibration compares the average highest probability with how often that highest-probability outcome actually occurred. Small samples remain visible.

BandSampleMean probabilityObserved accuracyGapBrier
under-501043.9%40.0%-3.9%0.2110
50-59452.6%50.0%-2.6%0.1998
60-69168.0%100.0%32.0%0.0530
70-790Not enough dataNot enough dataNot enough data
80-plus0Not enough dataNot enough dataNot enough data

Market breakdown

MarketSampleAccuracyBrier
1X21546.7%0.1975

Prediction records

08292026-90-83-62

1X2 · season 2026 · league 62 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:03:00 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-2931-2938-307

1X2 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:06:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-2934-26738-307

1X2 · season 2026 · league 307 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:06:07 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-3713-2250-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:03:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-22136-17588-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · fixture-form-poisson-v1

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:07:11 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-9723-17538-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:07:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-238-212-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:05:00 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-722-718-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:04:23 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-537-9692-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:04:24 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-548-540-140

1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1579-494-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:02:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-165-175-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-47-34-39

1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:03:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-488-503-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:02:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-502-512-135

1X2 · season 2026 · league 135 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:02:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-734-736-144

1X2 · season 2026 · league 144 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:03:39 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-10509-2929-307

1X2 · season 2026 · league 307 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 18:06:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-12804-9341-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-9347-13947-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-9628-9577-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:06:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-607-7411-203

1X2 · season 2026 · league 203 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:05:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-338-17115-106

1X2 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-95-116-61

1X2 · season 2026 · league 61 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 17:02:51 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier

08292026-5050-575-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-3714-640-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-3733-603-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-3724-4257-345

1X2 · season 2026 · league 345 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:02:38 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-9593-723-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-539-543-140

1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1123-1124-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:43 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-955-553-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-12260-619-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-957-617-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-949-5046-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:46 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-2110-17991-197

1X2 · season 2026 · league 197 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:04:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-4724-227-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:54 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-240-214-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 16:03:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-38-48-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1625-1623-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:04:49 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-1365-1336-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:08 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1367-1381-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1349-1353-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:09 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1352-1844-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1342-1360-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-41-58-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:02 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-71-44-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:01 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1335-59-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-43-62-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-1828-1364-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1370-37-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:15 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1373-747-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:15 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-1376-748-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:17 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1357-1343-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:18 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-74-1832-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:18 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-56-1355-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-68-1379-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-1368-1354-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:19 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1347-1337-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:07 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1361-1339-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-4686-1358-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:20 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-67-72-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-5902-266-144

1X2 · season 2026 · league 144 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:45 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1346-64-39

1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:36 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-35-45-39

1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 70-79 · Brier

08292026-250-1386-179

1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-254-258-179

1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:27 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-247-1389-179

1X2 · season 2026 · league 179 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:02:26 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-1362-1334-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-182-169-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:04:00 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1660-168-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-173-163-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:59 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-192-167-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-164-185-78

1X2 · season 2026 · league 78 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 15:03:58 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-14562-349-106

1X2 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 14:03:33 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-73-1345-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:11 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1330-9339-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:39 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1649-4260-84

1X2 · season 2026 · league 84 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:37 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-3012-112-62

1X2 · season 2026 · league 62 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:02:14 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-9387-22142-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:06:30 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-104-93-62

1X2 · season 2026 · league 62 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:02:18 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-40-65-39

1X2 · season 2026 · league 39 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:02:47 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1348-46-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:13 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1356-1350-41

1X2 · season 2026 · league 41 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:12 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1351-1363-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1369-1372-42

1X2 · season 2026 · league 42 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:10 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-39-75-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:07 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-70-60-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:06 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08292026-69-76-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-1320-178-79

1X2 · season 2026 · league 79 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:03 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-785-161-79

1X2 · season 2026 · league 79 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:05 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-180-183-79

1X2 · season 2026 · league 79 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:04 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08292026-4248-350-106

1X2 · season 2026 · league 106 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:02:35 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08292026-9901-9713-667

1X2 · season 2026 · league 667 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:06:30 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08282026-755-13975-72

1X2 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:01:56 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08282026-7834-123-72

1X2 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:01:57 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08282026-151-7865-72

1X2 · season 2026 · league 72 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:01:55 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

08282026-542-533-140

1X2 · season 2026 · league 140 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:44 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08282026-226-228-94

1X2 · season 2026 · league 94 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:04:00 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 50-59 · Brier

08282026-719-731-141

1X2 · season 2026 · league 141 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:29 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence 60-69 · Brier

08282026-1837-54-40

1X2 · season 2026 · league 40 · match-event-monte-carlo-v6-lineup-scenarios

pending

Snapshot 22/08/2026, 13:03:08 UTC · Outcome pending · Confidence under-50 · Brier

Inclusion and exclusion rules

Only the final snapshot created before kickoff is evaluated. Completed FT/AET/PEN fixtures are scored. Postponed, cancelled, abandoned, awarded and walkover fixtures are excluded and counted separately (0 in this view). Missing results remain pending. Older model versions remain attached to their original records.

Read the full methodology →