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Available match facts and model output are shown below. This outlook updates automatically as the evidence changes.
Current probabilities from the same simulation run shown in the Simulation tab.
Model output updated: 1 Oct 2026, 13:27
Final result: 3–1 · Prediction matched the highest-probability outcome.
The model gives Kyrgyzstan the highest result probability at 40.7%. The full split is Kyrgyzstan 40.7%, draw 27.0% and Lebanon 32.3%. The result picture remains competitive despite that edge. Projected xG is 1.15 for Kyrgyzstan and 1.00 for Lebanon, a combined 2.15. BTTS is rated at 48.9% and over 2.5 goals at 52.6%. The total-goals outlook is more positive than the both-teams-to-score angle, so one side doing most of the scoring remains plausible. This outlook will update as lineups and player availability become clearer.
Last updated: 04/10/2026 11:24
