Preparing match intelligence
We’re loading the fixture, latest team context and model outputs. A first-time preview may take a little longer.
Available match facts and model output are shown below. This outlook updates automatically as the evidence changes.
Current probabilities from the same simulation run shown in the Simulation tab.
Model output updated: 16 Sept 2026, 21:03
Final result: 2–2 · Prediction did not match the highest-probability outcome.
The model gives Sporting CP the highest result probability at 90.7%. The full split is Sporting CP 90.7%, draw 3.1% and Arouca 6.2%. That gives Sporting CP the clearest edge in the current result market. Projected xG is 2.50 for Sporting CP and 0.55 for Arouca, a combined 3.05. BTTS is rated at 38.8% and over 2.5 goals at 58.8%. The total-goals outlook is more positive than the both-teams-to-score angle, so one side doing most of the scoring remains plausible. This outlook will update as lineups and player availability become clearer.
CONFIRMED LINEUP UPDATE
Confirmed starting lineups are now available and the fixture intelligence has been refreshed with the official personnel.
Sporting CP: 4-2-3-1 · Arouca: 4-2-3-1
Last updated: 19/09/2026 19:09
